Vasileva E.N., Vasiliev E.S. Assessment of Birth Rate Dynamics as a Basis for the Formation of Family and Demographic Policy (On the Example of the Volgograd Region)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/lp.jvolsu.2026.1.2
Ekaterina N. Vasilieva
Doctor of Sciences (Sociology), Associate Professor, Chief Researcher, Institute of Social Demography of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Krzhizhanovskogo St, 24/35, Bld. 5, 117218 Moscow, Russian Federation
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0460-5539
Evgeniy S. Vasiliev
Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Researcher, Scientific Research Autonomous Non-Commercial Organization Institute "Tsargrad"
Partiyny Lane, 1/57/3, 115093 Moscow, Russian Federation
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8798-9880
Abstract. The relevance of the study is determined by the specifics of demographic changes in the Russian Federation that affect the size and structure of the population. The basis for the implementation of long-term familydemographic policy in Russia is the national project "Family", aimed at increasing the birth rate and the number of families with children. Support measures are being developed at the federal and regional levels, while the effectiveness of regional policy requires consideration of the specifics of local socio-economic and demographic processes. The Volgograd Region is a region with lower fertility rates compared with the national average. The purpose of our research is to determine the specifics of the birth rate dynamics and the resources for the formation of an effective family and demographic policy in the Volgograd region. The methodological basis of the research is the theory of demographic transition. The research methods include statistical analysis of the following indicators: population size, number of births, birth order by mother's age, total fertility rate, etc. The novelty of the study is determined by the search for resources to increase fertility in the regional context. The analysis of statistical data was carried out for 2012–2024. Correlations in terms of population size (urban/rural), the number of births (by order and age of the mother), and the total fertility rate are calculated. The approximation of significant correlations (0.79–0.99) was validated; values above 0.92 were considered as a significant dependence reflecting stable trends. The results obtained made it possible to identify areas for improving family-demographic policy in the Volgograd region. The need to stimulate the birth of second children under the age of 30 has been identified, which makes it possible to strengthen the basis for the formation of large families and the birth of third and subsequent children among women over 30 years. A strategy for overcoming negative demographic trends requires the integration of family and demographic policy measures with mechanisms aimed at enhancing the economic sustainability of families, which entails reducing the debt burden on households and developing infrastructural support for both rural and urban areas.
Key words: family-demographic policy, demography, population size, reproductive age, total fertility rate.
Citation. Vasilieva E.N., Vasiliev E.S. Assessment of Birth Rate Dynamics as a Basis for the Formation of Family and Demographic Policy (On the Example of the Volgograd Region). Logos et Praxis, 2026, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 14-25. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/lp.jvolsu.2026.1.2
Assessment of Birth Rate Dynamics as a Basis for the Formation of Family and Demographic Policy (On the Example of the Volgograd Region) © 2026 by Vasileva E.N., Vasiliev E.S. is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
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